Posting From STRATFOR - Terror & Terrorism

I'd like to post this forward from STRATFOR on the issue of Terror & Terrorism.
There's no doubt that I felt terrorized by the events of September 11 (I feel that the term, "9/11" is somehow less respectful than use of the full date, as we did with "December 7th, 1941 a day which will live in infamy as the Japanese attacked us at Pearl Harbor ..." I cannot think of anything that could drill pure terror into the hearts of almost anyone than having to decide whether to jump 100 stories, to your death, or burning alive. I'm not sure if YOU'VE thought about that, but I have, and I'd personally try to suck in enough toxic fumes & smoke that I'd collapse, and hope for unconsciousness v. jumping, or, feeling myself burning up.
Flesh is, after all, combustible.
Terrorism in the U.S. also includes the uses of terror to frighten & intimidate women who want an abortion, & must run gauntlets to get into an abortion clinic. The right to decide how to handle an unwanted pregnancy is the woman's right, ultimately. Those who try to terrorize American men & women into staying away from abortion clinics are true terrorists, to me.
When I look at all the various methods that terrorists have come up with in the last year, 2010, I'd say, there's been a significant advance across the board. Some, as the incident recently reported in Denmark, goes back three years to the cartoon of Muhammad in a Danish newspaper or journal. That's absurd. Western expressions of free speech must include the right to caricature any figure of any religion, period. The right of free speech therein, must be exercised. Islam must cope w/ their place in the 21st Century, and they should adapt to such acts of free speech, and allow them to roll off their backs.
If any religion is so fragile as to be bent into violence by a few cartoons, it's most likely not ready for the 21st Century. There is both respect & mockery given to all religions in the West, and yet, all have stood the test of time. None of the major religions have disappeared, since the concept of free speech emerged from modern Western European culture.
In the U.S., I think it's clear that sooner or later, we'll have an attack on Americans in a way that will cause serious casualties.
With more guns floating around than any modern nation on the face of the earth, the United States is wide open to slaughter through weapons. If any group of ten men & women were able to develop such sufficient operational and communications security as to stay completely off the radar for the time needed to train & prepare for a Mumbai type attack, the U.S. could see severe casualties in a single incident.
Obviously, an attack across the nation, say, within 72 hours of one another, in a dozen different locations where holiday shoppers are out in force, would cause deep, deep terror in the U.S. Mumbai was pulled off by 10 young men. There are undoubtedly, right now, 10 young angry (very) Muslim men seeking to cause Americans pain. The question is leadership & effective tradecraft. This means someone @ the core who is a skillful leader & trainer. And, more than likely, several cohorts of equal skill.
A number of young Pakistanis, as well as young Afghans, WERE able to collect themselves sufficiently that their moves to Pakistan or intended moves to Pakistan, to learn jihadist techniques, were overlooked by parents & friends. That's serious significant. That they could maintain serious operational & communications security, for such a young bunch of potential jiadists ... was impressive. Where did that discipline come from? The answer to that question makes more sense than that they were acting to do harm to Americans upon their return.
Afixing razor sharp butcher knives onto the wheels of trucks, which are then driven straight into large crowds of people, would surely constitute a terror-izing experience. The mere image makes me shiver. There would be many serious cut wounds, perhaps even amputations. The more graphic the images the more terror-izing these events would be for Americans.
Much of the world has seen terror in it's life time. The U.S. is essentially a "virgin" on this note. We've not seen destruction of the Homeland since the Civil War. We've not seen terror since September 11, and thank goodness for that. If vidoe exists of the Ft. Hood attack, however, I'd guess most Americans would see it as deeply terror-izing.
And, that's the area where we may not be able to forestall such acts. With plenty of guns, and materials for fuel oil/ fertilizier bombs serving as the most handy components for bomb making, and terror attacks, I'd say we should adjust ourselves to see those methods used, sooner or later, in the U.S.
Likewise, Americans are undoubtedly being surveilled in any number of places where American tourists or visitors are thick, and in soft target settings. We may not ever see the type of massive bombings that Mumbai or Madrid, or London have seen, but we will surely see shooting incidents like carried out by Major Hassan.
What I wonder is: how do we approach the American Muslim community with a purely American sense of fairness & open mindedness. We must not agree, for instance, to give Muslims a pass on the free expression of speech if, for instance, South Park wishes to again caricature Mohammad. But, we must also find a way to walk a different balancing act for the rights of Palestinians AND Israelis, in that endless struggle. Some how, we must find a way to show that while we have serious differences w/Islam, we do not mean to say that 6 or 7 million Israelis and 10-12 million Jews, elsewhere, are worth MORE than 1.2 billion or so Muslims & Arabs.
I don't know how to do that, other than direct American to Palestinian involvement in say, rebuilding Palestine.
Also, for some Americans to call for a more even handed approach to the dealings with Israel & Palestine. If we can make inroads into the PLA, and begin some form of economic assistance for the West Bank, and show Hamas that they, too, could enjoy benefits of a cessation of attacks on Israel & Israelis, then we should look deeply @ how to do that.
There's no other way, I'd propose, to end the cyclical violence that propels Muslim-Arab hatred towards the West, & certainly, toward the U.S.
My prediction for 2011 would be @ least one shooting incident in a crowded place where Americans will shoot other Americans for some political terrorist "statement." The # of plots & players is increasing quite rapidly now. It's a threat that's coming, & I don't think we can stop it.
I intend to not give in to fear, and allow myself to be terrorized by that possibility.
I hope other Americans won't blindly allow themselves to feel "afraid." I've heard friends say that they're more
fearful of terrorism. I'm not. I will not, at least at this point, give in to that emotion.
I've not felt any different from September 11 than I do today.
Perhaps a faith in a Greater Power helps me to say: those are forces that if rolled out, I won't likely be able to stop them, anyway. I trust in a Greater Power to protect, even if I find myself in an act of terrorism. Let's hope that all Americans assess whether they've given into Terror, and determine to stop that.



Separating Terror from Terrorism is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

First Of A Kind

For over a year now, I've read, daily a range of analyses on matters of geopolitical interest, from the Intelligence Provider, STRATFOR. This post is the first of it's kind, which would allow individuals who wish to read this excellent reporting source, a chance to do so. I personally have found the data that's analyzed from the "pages of STRATFOR," to be excellent in nature. As a former political science major @ first, Indiana University (Bloomington), and second, the University of Oregon (Eugene), Bachelor's of Science, University of Oregon, I enjoy understanding more about our geopolitical world.
My primary interest is not the former Soviet Union, or even, modern Russia. It is, nonetheless, important to understand the START Treaty renewal process. The Republican Party has clearly, in many cases, worked diligently to embarrass the President, and weaken his position on a complete broad front, by attacking almost anything he has proposed on just about anything. The reduction of nuclear arms of any kind is worth the effort to assess THEIR value in a post-modern world. Recent admissions made in a Wall Street Journal article, repeated in the Washington Post, show that the Chinese military effort of modernization resembles a "Paper Tiger," in some respects, because the article pointed out ... the Chinese haven't been successful in equipping their own People's Liberation Army Air Force w/modern jet engines.
In fact, the article pointed out, they have had to buy sophisticated jet engines developed & manufactured, by the Russians. If this is the case, after a massive 50 year effort to become a dominant Global military power, that reduces the image of some 800-pound gorilla in the Far East. After all, jet engines are not hunter-killer satellites. The Chinese have, apparently, built the latter, which would seem to be a sophisticated engineering & development program. If they could accomplish that, why not build a simple jet engine for a state-of-the-art tactical weapons system?
At this point, I do not know personally, if these statements are valid. What I do know is that when I read this analysis that apparently represents a true assessment of China's military "might," it took me by surprise. It's Russia, post-U.S.S.R. collapse, that seems to have a broad capability to regain tactical & strategic power vis a vis the United States, not China. Russia President Vladimir Putin is a former KGB Colonel. He's no dunderhead. And he has clearly initiated a massive effort to regain prestige for Russia, now that the U.S.S.R. has collapsed.
The press is loaded w/comments about the Chinese Communist Party's ability to become a superpower in the Far East, almost withou any flaws in the argument. A Superpower should be able to build engines for the most up-to-date jet fighter. China can't do it. Russia can. This suggests that while the Chinese rush to attain Superpower status is all the rage, the Russians are cxapable of rearming themselves in a way so as to intimidate the former S.S.R.'s, of Eastern Europe. This could weaken NATO, and could have serious implications for all of Europe, if Russia under Putin elects to once again, become bellicose, & dominating, through military power.
STRATFOR provides me w/excellent research and analysis of the complexities of the geopolitical 21st Century. A few friends & readers of "hikingapacheria.com" may appreciate this as a service. Therefore, I've added this statement of "authorship" for STRATFOR, as I best understand those requirements.
Coming back to President Obama, then, & his insistence on the "renewed" negotiations for START II, I support our President in this endeavor. Anything that is not foolish, but accredited as being valid and worthwhile by various Democrat & Republican administrations, is clearly a valid move to protect American citizens. Behind that, negotiating and approving through the Senate this new treaty, opens our own modernization process & manufacture of updated tactical & strategic systems.
There is always a possibility that the world could see a nuclear war through tragic mistake. The world may have breathed a sigh of relief when the Soviet Union collapsed, but the Russian KGB colonel who is the President of the Russian Republic, is still a dangerous man. He has Superpower capabilities behind him. It is important to continue to work to reduce the possibilities of nuclear war, with Russia, with China. I hope to refer to accredit STRATFOR analyses in the future, because I respect the objectivity STRATFOR utilizes most often in it's analyses. It is not a mouth piece for the Republican OR Democrat Parties.
It is tremendously worthwhile to me to have a balanced provider of geopolitical information rather than receiving all this data & detail through clearly tainted, partisan think tanks. It's for that reason that I hope to shift these postings to my blog, and also, to my website, under "What's Jerry Up To?"
Making Sense of the START Debate is republished with permission of STRATFOR.