Comments On STRATFOR Article On Military Options

STRATFOR, an Intelligence Digest I subscribe to, published a "red alert" message on the miltary options available to it w/Hosni Mubarak's refusal to surrender total control of his government and leave Egypt. I would suggest that the man is 83 years of age; has cancer; has been surrounded by military thinkers all of his life; may have had a simple "melt down" of sensibilities since this crisis blossomed on social networking media.
He undoubtedly is baffled by the military's refusal already to slaughter thousands in the streets.
It is imperative that we, who have blogs, or comment on social media sites, to encourage the protestors to stay with non-violence. The possibility that the Egyptians can show the Arab world, at least, how to model & conduct themselves according to whatever tenants of Islam encourage peaceful means, to do so. To model for the rest of the Arab world (there's a difference between Arabs & non-Arab Muslims). However, we have all heard countless times by now that Islam is a peaceful religion. I, for one, have doubted that. This would be such a massive, monumental victory for peaceful regime change in the Arab & Muslim world, where almost every nation is run by dictators, authoritarian figures, monarchs, royal families, etc., that we cannot really know where it will lead.
There are millions upon millions of Arabs and non-Arab Muslims who are under the thumb of various dictators.
Post on FACEBOOK, TWiITTER, all the other media, where you can, on line, where these protestors might pick up the ball, and stay committed to non-violent protests. I outline, below, some of the options for the military I hope they may choose.
Right now, it must about be dawn in Egypt. This will be a day of monumental importance for the Arab world.
Let us all hope & pray that these protestors bring down Mubarak peacefully, and that the military finally usher him onto a plane, and send him packing to Germany, where he might go for medical treatment. The possibilities of a new, more peaceful Egypt, could lead to new deals between peaceful Palestinians and Israelis. If the Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations could also bear fruit, Hizbollah, Hamas, & Iranian and Salafist (Sunni) jihadists, could be marginalized. That needs to happen.
Dare to imagine a new era of peace with a majority of the Arab world, if not the entire Islamic world. My God!
Read the post: pass it on.


STRATFOR should also consider the Egyptian Military's use of non-lethal force, first, before assuming that military force, per se, will actually shoot into the massive crowds that are expected soon to develop. It would seem that the Egyptian military must have some non-lethal tools @ their disposal. It is also possible that some non-lethal devices have been shipped to the Egyptian military in the last two weeks, as some prudent lower level commanders may have ordered some, for just this instance.
It's possible, considering he's been a soldier all of his adult life, and reared in the presence of soldiers, that Mubarak has not the options to consider that many of us would. He has lived in a very insulated, privileged world for sixty years, at least. As such, his statements made several hours ago, were made in a sense that he was capitulating to the crowds. Imagine if you'd never heard a cross word or a frank statement made to you in thirty years, telling you a blunt truth about your presence or influence on the life & death of ordinary Egyptians! Imagine if you simply did not have the conceptual room to conceive that this is for real, that his lower level commanders are clearly not going to support him if he calls for violence against the crowds, and that many of his older commanders, having the gift of discourse among themselves, UNDERSTAND QUITE CLEARLY, the handwriting on the wall.
Hopefully, every social network site or channel that is available to the Egyptian citizens are preaching the power of non-violence in these last two & a half weeks. The Egyptian people are poised to inherit the spirit of Mohatma Gandhi; Martin Luther King, Jr and the American Civil Rights Movement; Desmond Tutu; Nelson Mandela;countless Quakers & peaceful, non-violent anti-war demonstrators in the Vietnam AND Iraq Wars, here in America. And, we do also have the possibility that President Obama will now speak clearly in favor of the people, and ask them to please, show the world the peaceful side of Islam.
This is a monumental opening for non-violent demonstrators within Islam to absolutely demonstrate peacefully in the face of an old, dottering, tottering man who simply is lost in space and time. We must all support, through social media, and other ways, every single Egyptian demonstrator committed to non-violent resistance.
My own guess is that if the Obama Administration also couples such a comment by the President, with very clear statements from the State Department & Defense Department, as well as intelligence agencies, that there will be an immediate cessation of all military & diplomatic funding from the U.S. if the miltiary reacts harshly, & opens this "uprising" to violence, the majority of the Egyptian military will "get the message."
Allowing the crowds to swell, managing as well as they have so far, to instruct the crowds to move & demonstrate peacefully, even if they move within blocks of the Presidential Palace, the military can perhaps manage crowd control in a way that will convince Mubarak that if he persists, & refuses to withdraw from the country, now, today, Friday 11 February, they will not protect him or his family from the fury of the crowds. In other words, there need not be any coup d'etat if Mubarak and those officers loyal to death to him, know they will be torn to pieces by a furious nation.
There is, of course, the possibility that the upper and older echelons of the military will go down fighting with Mubarak, dying with him if it comes to that. My guess is that some of those may be isolated by younger officers, pledging to keep them safe if they do not resist. They could also arrest some, & place them in protective custody. In the meanwhile, they can offer those individuals safe passage out of the country ... but not necessarily with all the money they've squirreled away during the years raping the Egyptian people & treasury.
Some might fight to the death. So be it. If the violence is unavoidable in these inner circles, then the lower & middle levels of the miltary may have to exercise some very limited violence, wounding where possible. Others will also get the word ... leave or we will allow the crowds to know your crimes, & where your treasures are. Many of these older men are focused on their treasures. At their ages, many will simply want to get out of the country.
Every single contact with these military men must now come from every connection here in the U.S., to ask them to allow the "uprising" to remain peaceful & non-violent. Mubarak may, in the end, stroke out, or have a heart attack, or commit suicide, or, just finally, understand, he can stand his ground, or completely & totally, renounce his claims on the Presidency, and, leave while he can.
President Obama must also tell him now: I fear for your safety. There are limits to what I can do to save you from
these furious crowds. It will soon be impossible for me or the U.S. to save you from death or destruction. Go now. Leave peacefully. Leave before the crowds turn against you, because it is doubtful your military is ready to slaughter so many innocents.
And, the President should tell Mubarak: if you ignore the wishes of so many millions, then I cannot any longer, stand w/you as a friend and former colleague.

For my readers, I've posted this comment on the Egyptian uprisings.
"'The administration's essential Egypt strategy began to shift to focus less on Mubarak's departure, allowing that Egyptians "could get through this door another way," in the words of another senior administration official. The process, the official said, would include all key political parties and would probably involve discussions over the constitution and institutions that would have to be changed to ensure democratic elections."
Critics of the Obama Administration will always find something to carp about. But, the bottom line is:
ALL efforts of the Obama Administration wisely centered around the avoidance of violence perpetrated against non-violent demonstrators. The fact is, this is the first massive, non-violent "uprising" or "change in government" in the modern Middle East.
In Tunisia, government security forces (Army & Police), responded in various ways, but people were killed by such forces firing INTO crowds of human beings trying to upset the status quo. In Syria, the protests failed to even get off the ground. In Jordan & Yemen, leaders were either forced into withdrawal from future participation as leaders, or, firing cabinet, & addressing critical concerns of their public.
Egypt, the most populous Arab nation in the so-called Hub Of Islam, has the potential to change the tone & tenor of political processes by serving as a powerful model for peaceful protests. We have heard for a decade now, that Islam is "a peaceful religion." I, for one, have serious doubts about that.
As a Quaker/Buddhist, who saw peaceful &/or violent protests against the Vietnam War, I know the difference. As one in protests against the Iraq War, I know also, as a former leader, how incredibly difficult it is to maintain a posture of non-violence when some participants respond to violence, cat calls, insults, etc., w/some of the same. A peaceful, non-violent demonstration is an exercise in discipline.
Whether the Egyptians did this or not, I do not know. The 6 April Movement, & the corner stone motivational group, "We Are All Khaled," which I highlighted a week or more ago, in comments to Karen de Young, were @ the heart of a "movement" that ignited this entire event via social networking efforts, means & methods. THEY had been demonstrating against Egyptian Security forces' brutality for more than a year. Their peaceful, non-violent demonstrations were motivational. They were a core group using the Quran & perhaps, techniques gained through study of American & Indian practices in their non-violent demonstrations.
President Obama, as the first African-American President associated through friends, philosophy, & belief in non-violence, who visited Egypt shortly after his inauguration, may have inspired these young people to practice non-violence. As a person who knows the descendants of Martin Luther King, he can call on all ages of Egyptians, to remain committed to non-violence. Couple with that commitment from the American side; active, robust intelligence; and, Obama's team approach to contact every level of government, the Army was an instrument that responded to American entreaties, v. responding by Mubarak's default setting of unleashing ugly forces as we saw last week.
If Obama can emphasize, again & again, American belief that the process will remain Egyptian, but urge Egyptians to continue to protest peacefully, I think the outcome will be Egyptian, but, also, show the marks of the traditions of Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King, Jr., Bishop Tutu, Nelson Mandela.
This is an ENORMOUS opportunity to influence the peaceful elements of Islam in the Hub Of Islam. Imagine THAT! We can now reinforce that behavior, and possibly see whether Islam really IS a peaceful religion. Emphasizing that now is vital to shaping these events. The moral high ground will go to those manifesting PEACE, not violence, in their protests. And if the Egyptians effect this change that way, my GOD, what a victory for the world!
Tactically, we're aware of all the various factions & players. A wiring diagram is needed to understand the players, parties, movements, groups. But we're engaged, I'm sure, in understanding the issues of these people & groups as they enter the negotiations.
If we intervene directly, we'll have disaster. We don't want Mossadegh or Diem Brothers style coup d'etats. Obama doesn't want blood on his history. This will be delicate, & require deftness. Obama's the man to adopt those approaches.
IF this movement stays peaceful, it will be an enormous counter to violent jihadist Islam. Don't we want to see more of that? Isn't it worth a slower process? And, after all, there really ARE other ways to get this process through the door of change.
The Army's maintained a discipline remarkable to see. Working w/peaceful protestors, the Army's garnered tremendous respect for these ways. The Army's learned that somewhere. I'd bet, from Americans."